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The Washington Times
 
 
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  New year might favor purchasing a house
by Michele Lerner
December 28, 2007

 

A new year always brings thoughts of what the coming months will bring, even for those who shy away from New Year's resolutions. For potential home buyers who have been among the many restless renters or move-up buyers waiting out 2007's market shifts, 2008 just might be the year to buy a home.

"For the first time in about three years, people, including investors, are starting to look at the real estate market again, and for good reason," says Steve Israel, broker and president of Buyer's Edge in Bethesda, an agency that exclusively represents buyers.

"There are some real deals out there," he says. "We know the market is down a bit, which is unusual for the D.C. area, and we also know that 2008 will be better."

Mr. Israel says few buyers are expert enough to time the market just right, to purchase a home at the exact moment that its value is the lowest, but he thinks this winter could be among the best times to buy real estate.

"The moderately softer market and the high inventory out there means that sellers are a bit anxious," says Mr. Israel. "Combine that with the usual winter blahs, when sales are slower, and sellers will be more anxious. There's no reason to think that prices will drop a lot further, so that even if there is a slight downturn, it will not be dramatic."

Joseph Himali, principal broker of Best Address Real Estate LLC in the District, counsels potential buyers in the same advice regardless of market conditions.

"I always tell people that they should only buy a home if it is the right time in their life to buy and if they love the house they are purchasing," Mr. Himali says. "Right now, interest rates are expected to stay low and there's lots of inventory out there, so buyers have lots to choose from. But, if the market declines, buyers should be prepared to stay in the home they love regardless of its value."

Corey Savelson, a Realtor with RE/MAX 2000 in Rockville, says his forecast for the regional real estate market in 2008 is, "It depends."

"It's impossible to generalize in the D.C. market, where every neighborhood is different and even certain streets are different," Mr. Savelson says. "In some areas, foreclosures have affected the neighborhood values and created confusion; in other neighborhoods where inventory is low, you can still sometimes have multiple contracts."

Mr. Savelson predicts that the market will stay soft at least through the first quarter of 2008 and says that buyers need to be very careful about paying too much money.

"If a family is transferring to this area and they need to buy a home, they should definitely look for an area with low inventory and few foreclosures to make sure the home doesn't lose value," Mr. Savelson says.

"Someone who doesn't have to buy right now, especially if they are looking in a price range or an area with some foreclosures, should sit back and wait a little because prices may still slide some more," he says.

Mr. Savelson says buyers need to be well-educated and work with an agent who knows the neighborhood thoroughly because some areas will be a great buy and others may not be. Pat Kline, a Realtor with Avery-Hess Realtors in Springfield, says that since the holiday period is traditionally slow, sellers are very motivated.

"Times have changed, and people are starting to recognize that the asking price is just that, an 'asking' price," Mrs. Kline says. "Sellers need to be aware that there are thousands of homes on the market and in some areas only one-third of those homes will sell. In others, only 7 to 10 percent will sell at all."

Mrs. Kline says real estate cycles generally last five years or so. She thinks that we are about halfway into this current cycle and that prices should be at or close to the bottom now. "People really need to look at real estate as a long-term commitment," Mrs. Kline says. "If you are only staying here for a year or two, don't buy a house. But if this is the right time to buy in your life, you should go ahead. Prices have only dropped a little bit and even if you bought now and the value dropped a little more, it will eventually go back up again."

Buyers, particularly in a fluctuating market, are concerned about buying a property that will hold its value. While no crystal ball exists that can predict an exact future property value, some factors do enter into the equation of the long-term financial worth of a home.

Mr. Himali says the detached single-family homes hold their value best, with town homes next, followed by condominiums and then co-ops. He recommends that buyers on the borderline between affording a single-family home versus a town home should buy the single-family home if they can.

"It's also better to buy a home in a fully completed area rather than in a new development which has more lots to be built on," Mr. Himali says. "Otherwise, you will be competing against newer homes when you want to sell."

The best option of all, he says, is for buyers to find a home that needs some work. "If you take the time to learn how to do the work yourself or can find a good contractor and be willing to live with some of the hassles of home improvement projects, then you can make money on the house," Mr. Himali says.

"Of course, the old joke in real estate is that the best way to make $100,000 on a house is to spend $200,000 in improvements," he says. "But if you do it correctly, you can actually make money by improving a house."

Mr. Israel says buyers concerned about a property holding its value should remember the simplest lessons of real estate.

"Buyers need to buy the best house they can, in the best location they can," Mr. Israel says. "Locally, that means things like being inside the Beltway, in the best school district and on a good cul-de-sac location within a development."

Mrs. Kline recommends buying a home that is not too unique, a place that will hold a more universal appeal to future buyers. She recommends looking for a home that has been built with quality, near a Metro station or in an area that is about to be developed or already has an urban center with shops and restaurants.

Whether 2008 is the year to buy a home depends on the ability of potential buyers to obtain a loan.

Some real estate agents say some clients have had difficulty obtaining a mortgage, while others say their clients have had no problem with financing. In either case, agents acknowledge that fewer loan programs are available and that buyers must be prepared with more documentation of their income and assets than in the past.

Mr. Savelson predicts that in 2008, lenders will bring back more jumbo loans (those over $417,000) requiring only a 5 percent down payment. Many jumbo loans in 2007 required a 10 percent or higher down payment unless the buyer had an extremely high credit score, he says.

Buyers with less-than-perfect credit or little cash may be able to obtain a Federal Housing Administration loan.

The FHA Web site (www.fha.gov) lists the limit for an FHA loan in the Washington area at $362,970.

Mr. Israel says borrowers buying homes in the $1,000,000 and higher price range have experienced some tightening of credit, with lenders looking for at least a 20 percent down payment.

"Most banks have money to lend, but the question is whether you are going to like the loan you can get," Mr. Himali says. "If you have a solid down payment, a solid salary and a solid credit score, you'll be fine. If you have very little cash, bad credit or are self-employed, it's going to be harder to get a loan."

Mr. Himali says buyers really should be prepared to make a minimum down payment of 5 percent and to pay 2 to 3 percent of the home price for closing costs, meaning they will need about 7 to 8 percent of the home price in cash, or $35,000 to $40,000 for a $500,000 home.

Buyers with cash in the bank or in the equity in an existing home might decide 2008 is the right time for a new home.


 
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